Trend Scenario A - Historical Trend with minimal transportation improvements:

The NC 54 corridor will continue to grow as in the past few decades with low density development in vacant land, minimal redevelopment, and transportation investments focused on widening the main corridors. The Trend Scenario A does not use the socioeconomic assumptions of the LRTP; rather it assumes that the vacant land will be developed from a historical trend perspective at roughly the minimum to mid-range densities and with land uses as specified in the future land use plans, resulting in mostly residential growth in the corridor. The transportation investments are minimal.

Land Use Assumptions:

• Development will be limited to vacant parcels; no redevelopment will occur
• Existing vacant land in Durham County built to minimum densities according to Future Land Use Plan
  • Residential parcels have 1 to 12 dwelling units per acre
  • Employment/commercial parcels have 20 to 32 jobs per acre and 0.25 to 0.35 floor area ratio
• Existing vacant land in Chapel Hill built to minimum densities according to Future Land Use Plan
  • Residential parcels have 1 to 15 dwelling units per acre
  • Employment/commercial parcels have 13 to 48 jobs per acre and 0.18 to 0.60 floor area ratio
• Building heights are 1 to 3 stories
• Durham County growth:

	Jobs	Households
Existing	1,627	2,420
LRTP Total 2035	10,325	6,118
TREND	5,079 (49%)	5,229 (85%)

• Orange County Growth:

	Jobs	Households
Existing	1,606	1,862
LRTP Total 2035	2,333	2,624
TREND	2,480 (106%)	2,524 (96%)

Transportation Assumptions:

• NC 54 expanded to 6 lanes
• No other transportation improvements
  • No collector streets built
  • No light rail system

Trend Scenario B - Historical Trend with more transportation investments

The land use assumptions in Trend Scenario B are identical to those in Trend Scenario A. In Trend Scenario B, the construction of the collector street system will provide increased capacity, alleviating the worst of the traffic problems.

Land Use Assumptions:

• These are the same as Trend Scenario A.

Transportation Assumptions:

• NC 54 expanded to 6 lanes
• Collector street system built
• No light rail

Scenario 1 - LRTP Policy Scenario - Light Rail Transit Moderate Forecast

The DCHC MPO Long Range Transportation Plan identifies a number of policies that if followed will discontinue the historical patterns of development and transportation investments. In Scenario 1, the NC 54 corridor will grow and develop as indicated by the LRTP policies. The growth forecasted for the NC 54 corridor will be organized to minimally support the light rail transit system, which will be in place by 2035. The uses within the corridor will intensify to meet the forecasted growth in jobs and households as outlined in the LRTP.

Land Use Assumptions:

• Vacant land and redevelopment will occur to accommodate the forecasted growth
• Mostly residential buildout
• Development and redevelopment in Durham County:
  • Residential parcels have 6 to 20 dwelling units per acre.
  • Employment/commercial parcels have 24 to 65 jobs per acre and 0.27 to 0.65 floor area ratio.
• Development and redevelopment in Chapel Hill.
  • Residential parcels have 2 to 25 dwelling units per acre.
  • Employment/commercial parcels have 18 to 75 jobs per acre and 0.30 to 0.75 floor area ratio.
• Building heights are 1 to 3 stories, with up to 5 stories in the most intensely developed areas.
• Leigh Village will be built as illustrated with primarily horizontal mixed-use.
• Uses within the Friday Center may slightly intensify, providing higher employment growth in Chapel Hill than forecasted in the LRTP.
• Durham County Growth

	Jobs	Households
Existing	1,627	2,420
LRTP Total 2035	10,325	6,118
SCENARIO 1	10,920 (106%)	6,702 (110%)

• Orange County Growth:

	Jobs	Households
Existing	1,606	1,862
LRTP Total 2035	2,333	2,624
SCENARIO 1	4,450 (178%)	3,064 (117%)

Transportation Assumptions:

• NC 54 expanded to 6 lanes
• Collector street system built
• Light Rail system built and functioning
• Enhance local bus service as consistent with CHT and TTA planning documents
• Bus Rapid Transit service on NC 54 originating at Leigh Village to Chapel Hill and UNC
• Park-and-ride facility remains at Friday Center (may become bigger facility with structured parking instead of surface lots)

Scenario 2 - "Med-Tech City"

The growth in the NC 54 corridor will exceed expectations. The population and job growth will be centered around a successful light rail transit system. The corridor itself will be a destination for the region, a thriving district for UNC institutional, medical and academic prosperity. Transportation investments will be focused on making the light rail system a vital transportation asset, where ridership levels exceed expectation.

Land Use Assumptions:

• Development and redevelopment will be centered around light rail transit stations to support transit and maximize ridership
• Mixed-use developments will be prevalent, with diverse housing, shopping, medical offices, academic and institutional uses
  • Residential parcels have 9 to 60 dwelling units per acre
  • Employment/commercial parcels have 24 to 120 jobs per acre and 0.27 to 1.50 floor area ratio
• Building heights are 4 to 8 stories in the core transit hubs and high density complexes, with 1 to 4 stories in the outlying areas
• Leigh Village will become the focal point of the corridor as a mixed-use community hub of jobs and housing.
• Additional redevelopment will occur on parcels within the vicinity of Leigh Village
• The Friday Center will be fully redeveloped as a major employment facility or complex with workforce housing nearby. This could result in an additional 2,500 jobs and 500 households by 2035.
• The Glen Lennox neighborhood will redevelop as a mixed use development featuring workforce housing.
• Finley Golf Course will partially redevelop for workforce housing opportunities.
• Durham County growth:

	Jobs	Households
Existing	1,627	2,420
LRTP Total 2035	10,325	6,118
SCENARIO 2	14,300 (139%)	10,947 (179%)

• Orange County growth:

	Jobs	Households
Existing	1,606	1,862
LRTP Total 2035	2,333	2,624
SCENARIO 2	6,964 (298%)	5,469 (208%)

• No lanes added to NC 54
• I-40 HOV lanes in effect
• Collector street system built
• Light Rail system built and functioning
• Remove Friday Center park-and-ride lot
• Three new park-and-ride lots will be implemented
  • One at the Leigh Village/Farrington Road light rail transit station
  • One at the 'Gateway Center': the southwest quadrant of the I-40 & US 15/501 interchange north of the study area
  • One to the east of the study area, near the 751 interchange (Southpoint or Woodcroft, near car dealerships), and served by express bus service to Friday Center and UNC.
• Expand local bus service to serve the entire corridor with all day saturated local service with express buses in peaks
• Provide express bus service / Bus Rapid Transit service to park-and-ride lots, with BRT along NC 54
• I-40 HOV flyover ramp connecting to the park-and-ride lot at Leigh Village

Documents:

NC54-I40 Corridor Study Workshop 1 & 2 Workbook (PDF)

NC54-I40 Corridor Study Workshop 2 Poster (PDF)

NC54-I40 Corridor Study Workshop 2 Scenario Description 2D Map (PDF)

NC54-I40 Corridor Study Workshop 2 Scenario Description 3D Map (PDF)